Liberal pundits are seeming to sense something big is coming. MSNBC’s Chuck Todd referred to the upcoming midterm elections as being “bad or catastrophic” for Democrats. ![]() One would expect the Republican congressional ballot poll average to be higher, especially with a President in office with an abysmal 51.7% unfavorable RCP average but even that small advantage translates to enough seats to take the House. Recent polling of the generic congressional ballot over the cycle shows a Real Clear Politics average of 45.8% support for Republicans compared to 42.3% for Democrats. Fortunately for Republicans, even though they are defending more seats than Democrats and have to compete in open seats vacated by Republicans, some of which are in purple-ish states like North Carolina, they have the historical wind at their back. This year, 35 Senate seats are up for election, with 15 Republican and 13 Democrat incumbents running, and seven open seats, six of which were held by Republicans. In the Senate, things are even closer with the current 50-50 split. A 26-seat victory this November would handily give Republicans control of the House. Today, Democrats hold a three-vote majority, 221-209, with five vacancies (218 seats needed for a majority). House of Representatives typically loses, on average, 26 seats. ![]() This is a natural and necessary ebb and flow of power, designed to prevent any permanent majority from emerging.Īs we have previously quipped on these pages, over the last 40 years of midterm elections, the party that controls the U.S. In fact, midterm elections have historically served as a check on the power of the Presidency and the party controlling Congress. While non-presidential elections get less fanfare in the media they are no less important. In American politics these days, every election is the most important election of our lifetime, because the stakes continue to be raised on an increasing number of issues that impact the daily lives of Americans.
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